by Terry Francl, Richard Nadler, and Joseph Bast
Farmers have a major stake in the debate taking place over global warming. Approximately one-fifth of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. come from agricultural activity. Agriculture, as it is practiced in the U.S., is surprisingly energy intensive. As a result, proposals to tax fossil fuels or cap carbon dioxide emissions would raise the cost of many farm inputs, from fertilizer and other chemicals to fuel and motor oil.
This study is written for farmers and the businesses and institutions that benefit from their association with farmers. It identifies and quantifies what is at stake in the debate over global warming. It urges the agricultural community to participate in the public debate over the latest global warming treaty—the Kyoto Protocol—or else find itself unfairly burdened by higher energy costs and faced with unfair competition from farmers in developing countries.
How much is at stake? We estimate that compliance with the Protocol would increase U.S. farm production expenses between $10 and $20 billion per year and decrease farm income by 24 to 48 percent. The Kyoto Protocol, all by itself, could cost the average farmer between one quarter and one-half of his or her annual income.
In Part 1 of this report we describe the Kyoto Protocol and the events that led to its endorsement by the Clinton Administration. In Part 2, we examine in considerable detail the likely impact of the Protocol on U.S. agriculture. We walk the reader through the steps of our analysis to show we are presenting objective, solid evidence, not just opinion or alarmist speculation.
In Part 3, we describe a positive approach to the global warming issue. We believe people in the agricultural community can make a unique contribution to the public debate by describing the positive effects that rising carbon dioxide (CO ) levels have on 2 plant growth, and putting forward “win-win” activities that reduce CO emissions while also 2 benefitting farmers and consumers. Part 4 consists of a brief summary and conclusion.
We hope this report will encourage journalists to study the global warming issue more closely and give other readers a source of reliable information on one of the most important issues of the day. Most of all, we hope farmers and their natural allies will use it to defend their farms, their homes, and their way of life.
